All About Bananas
Why they taste like that and cost that much, by Annie Hariharan and Carol Pope
America Is Saddled with One Banana of Many
By Annie Hariharan
Bananas may be a standard, somewhat boring lunch box filler for some in the U.S., but in tropical countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, there are enough varieties to cause decision fatigue. They differ in taste, shape, texture, creaminess, and even color so people select bananas based on what they plan to do with it. There’s pisang (pisang is the Malay and Indonesian word for banana) berangan to eat as-is, pisang rastali for fritters, pisang awak for steamed desserts, and plantains for savory dishes.
These varieties are rarely available in banana-importing countries like the United States and Australia, blocked by monoculture, global supply chains, and the CIA.
This goes back to the 19th century, when the Gros Michel variety was the go-to banana for consumers and producers outside of growing regions. It was hardy, bruise-resistant, and could withstand the long export journey. But there was a catch: Gros Michel bananas were propagated by cuttings rather than pollination, which means each banana was a clone of each other. This consistency appealed to customers, but it was also its downfall. As growers turned to this one variety, they created a monoculture that was vulnerable to disease.
In the 1890s, a strain of Panama disease (caused by a soil-borne fungus) started to infect banana crops in Panama and Costa Rica. Over the next 60 years, it spread throughout banana plantations and wiped Gros Michel out almost entirely: it does live on as pisang embun in Malaysia and pisang ambon in Indonesia.
To manage the fallout from the Panama disease, banana investors hunted for a new banana variety and in the 1960s, they found one in the Cavendish. Today, Cavendish accounts for around 47 percent of global banana production. It is still propagated by cuttings but it is resistant to the Panama disease, can be transported while still green (although it is supposedly blander than the Gros Michel), and grows in most soil types, which reduces the risk of over-reliance on a single country or region.
At the same time, there was trouble brewing in Central America. American companies like Chiquita (previously known as the United Fruit Company or UFC) were deeply entrenched in the region. They were making deals with governments to obtain land and favorable policies for their banana monopoly, making themselves dependent on authoritarian rule to protect their interests and quell labor uprising. (Thus the term “banana republic,” which refers to a politically unstable country during the heyday of the banana trade in Central America.) These commercial relationships were so critical to the American banana industry that in 1954, the CIA interfered in Guatemala and helped overthrow the democratically elected president Jacobo Árbenz, because his egalitarian land reform policies worked against companies like UFC.
Look at what monoculture leads to.
Additional sources here, here, here, & here.
A World of $10 Bananas
By Carol Pope
“I mean, it’s one banana, Michael. What could it cost, $10?”
As the country grapples with the soaring cost of groceries and hangs on by its fingernails to avoid falling into Great Recession: Part Deux, Lucille Bluth’s 20-year-old query comes to mind. As insane as it seems, it’s not out of the question now for an 18-pack of eggs to cost $10. Could the banana be doomed to the same fate? If so, when?
Banana math
First, let’s consider the average cost of bananas in the United States. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), the answer is about 63 cents a pound. The last time bananas were this pricey was during the Great Recession, but overall, the price of bananas per pound has only shifted plus or minus 10 cents over the last 15 years. Compared to other fruits (strawberries, for example), bananas are a lot less volatile.
The next thing we need to know is the average price of one banana.
To do this, let’s take the average weight of a medium-sized banana (which is 118 grams, or .26 pounds) and multiply it by the average cost of bananas per pound (63 cents). With this, we now know that, in early 2023, one banana costs a hefty 16 cents.
Banana inflation
In January 2020, the inflation rate in the United States was 2.5 percent. After taking a steep dive during the initial stages of the pandemic, inflation peaked at a staggering 9.1 percent in June 2022, a 40-year high.
For the purposes of this experiment, though, let’s set aside crazy economic anomalies and consider average inflation. Using Consumer Price Index (CPI data) from 1947 to 2022, the average inflation rate in the United States was 3.49 percent.
However, most goods and services have their own individual inflation rate, and referring back to the CPI, for bananas it’s 2.34 percent.
Banana answer
So, we know the average cost of one banana and the average inflation rate of bananas. Using this along with some help from Wolfram Alpha, we’re ready to unpeel the answer to our big question.
If the average price and inflation rate of bananas in the United States remained constant as they stand in 2023, a banana would cost $10 in 2198, which is 175 years from now.
This might lead you to ask one final question: actually, why are bananas so cheap?
Although the answer is a bit complicated, the heart of the matter lies in bananas’ lack of seasonality. Bananas grow year-round in the tropical counties where they’re grown and exported (Ecuador, the Philippines, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Ecuador). The world has a surplus of bananas and supply outweighs demand, giving grocers the power to undercut their competition.
So, unless you plan on living for a very, very, VERY long time…you don’t need to worry about Lucille Bluth’s guesstimation coming true.
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This newsletter is edited by Katherine Spiers, host of the podcast Smart Mouth.
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I proudly do purchase and consume plantains as well as the popular bananas. This was insightful. Thanks.